Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
