Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
